Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Where will Lito Sheppard land?

The possibility of Lito Sheppard being traded is around 99%. Right now every blogger and sports analyst has his or her opinion about where he might land. The most popular choices are the Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions. There is a shot that he could land in one of those cities but we might not know till draft day. The Eagles don't seem to be in any rush to kick Lito out but it is inevitable. The day is coming. So with the deadline for the Eagles to trade Lito being a little over a month away I thought I would go through what teams may land Lito and give the chances of Lito being traded there. And what who the Eagles might get in return.

Arizona Cardinals:

This has been the most popular landing spot being rumored for where Lito might end up. The biggest reason being the Eagles need for a WR, and the Cardinals being in salary cap hell because of their miss management of Larry Fitzgerald's contract. Fitzgerald is owed $32M over the next two seasons. Fitzgerald holds all the leverage in this situation and is using it to his advantage. The Cardinals have been trying to negotiate a new contract with Fitzgerald so that could lower his cap value over the next two years, but Fitzgerald is not budging at all. The Cards are either going to have to pay him, and not have any cap space, or trade him. Now the Cardinals say publicly that Fitzgerald is not available but the rumors say otherwise. The latest report is that the Eagles offered the Cardinals, Lito and a second round draft pick for Fitzgerald. The Cardinals said no, but said make it Lito and a first round pick and then we will talk. So right now the Eagles have to wait and see how contract negotiations go with Fitzgerald before they unload Lito. The last thing they need is to trade Lito, and then the next day hear Fitzgerald is on the trade block. The situation in Arizona may play out until the draft at least, and that would be the deadline for the Eagles. They have to unload Lito by draft day, when he may have his highest value.

Cardinals get: CB Lito Sheppard, WR Reggie Brown, 2008 2nd rd pick, 2008 3rd rd pick.
Eagles get: WR Larry Fitzgerald.

Chances of a trade happening: 25%

Baltimore Ravens:

The Baltimore Ravens are in need of a CB. They lack depth and youth at the position and Lito could start over Samari Rolle immediately. New head coach John Harbaugh is very familiar with Lito and has plenty of ties within the Eagles front office which could make a deal more likely. Now the Ravens don't have much to send back so a trade would probably involve swapping draft picks. The fact that this years CB class is very deep, the Ravens could gain a veteran CB, in Lito, and draft another CB with the Eagles 19th pick. This would solidify a position in need of a makeover. The Eagles in turn would get the the 8th pick in the draft. Now in terms of the NFL Draft Point Value Chart, which all NFL teams use to put a value on draft picks, the jump from 19th to 8th would be worth 525 points. 525 points is a early 2nd round draft pick. A 2nd round pick seems about right for what Lito should be worth straight up. Now the Eagles might jump to do this so they could get one of the top three OT's that are available. I think if they moved up in the first round they would target Boise St. OT Ryan Clady or Pitt's Jeff Otah.

Ravens get: 19th pick in 2008 Draft, and Lito Sheppard.
Eagles get: 8th pick in 2008 Draft.

Chances of trade happening: 65%

Detroit Lions:

This team is the second most talked about team that Lito could be traded to. The Lions secondary is horrible and has been horrible for years. Lito would be an instant upgrade. The Lions are thought to be willing to let Roy Williams go for the right price even though they have said publicly that Roy is not available. Everyone is available. They have Calvin Johnson who looks who is the future at the WR position, and with the rise of Mike Furrey, Roy could be expendable. The Eagles would have to package Lito with draft picks, most likely a 2nd this year and maybe a 2nd or 3rd for next year. With the Lions sitting at 15 in April's draft they could get a solid CB there. Add that with Lito Sheppard and they could have two new starting CB's by the end of April.

Lions get: CB Lito Sheppard, 2008 2nd Rd pick, 2009 3rd Rd pick.
Eagles get: WR Roy Williams

Chances of trade happening: 55%

Houston Texans:

The Texans are a team that I'm surprised isn't getting more attention. They have struggled at the CB position pretty much since they came into the league six years ago. Now the only trade piece they have is WR Andre Johnson. He has missed some significant time in the last three seasons but still is a great WR. He may not be Fitzgerald or Roy but he would be a upgrade from Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown. I really think that if you called the Texans they would have no problem trading Johnson. They signed Johnson to 8 year deal last season and the first year into the new contract he missed 7 games. The Texans are sitting at 18 in the draft could draft CB, or WR if they trade Johnson. I think this could happen as a last resort for the Eagles.

Texans get: CB Lito Sheppard
Eagles get: WR Andre Johnson

Chance of trade happening: 40%

New England Patriots:

If the Eagles can't get a deal done for Fitzgerald or Roy, this is the next spot I think Lito could go. With the Cards and Lions being so adamant about keeping their WR's, this seems to be the place Lito will end up. The Patriots lost Asante Samuel and Randell Gay to free agency and are in need of a veteran CB. Lito would fit great into there cover two scheme, and would strive if he can stay on the field. Now this would be an easy trade. Lito and the 19th pick for the 7th overall pick. This would put the Eagles in great position to get a OL or the top CB available. The Patriots on the other hand would fill the hole left by Samuel and still be in position to get a good LB. Not many teams have an immediate need at LB like the Pats do.

Patriots get: CB Lito Sheppard, 19th pick in 2008 and 2008 4th rd. pick.
Eagles get: 7th pick in 2008 Draft.

Chances of trade happening: 70%

There are numerous teams who may want to trade their 2nd or 3rd round pick straight up for Lito Sheppard. Those teams are Saints, Redskins Titans, Bengals, Chiefs, and the Vikings. Any one of these teams has a shot if all else above fails.

Chances of trade happening to any of these teams: 50%

No comments: